Under COVID-19-pandemin genomf\u00f6rde Kina ett omfattande experiment f\u00f6r att se om det var m\u00f6jligt att begr\u00e4nsa \u00f6verf\u00f6ringen av viruset inom landet och f\u00f6rhindra att det kom in i landet via resen\u00e4rer fr\u00e5n utlandet. Efterhand som h\u00e4ndelserna utvecklades blev metoden k\u00e4nd som \"noll COVID-strategin\". Fungerade det? Svaret \u00e4r ungef\u00e4r, men man var tvungen att \u00f6verge den p\u00e5 grund av konsekvenser som inte kunde f\u00f6rutses n\u00e4r strategin inleddes.<\/p>\n
Men f\u00f6rst ska vi titta p\u00e5 de specifika \u00e5tg\u00e4rder som ing\u00e5r i \"noll COVID-strategin\". F\u00f6r detta m\u00e5ste vi g\u00e5 l\u00e5ngt tillbaka till januari 2020, d\u00e5 Kina ins\u00e5g att de var tvungna att rapportera om 40 ovanliga fall av allvarlig lunginflammation i staden Wuhan. De var de f\u00f6rsta officiellt rapporterade fallen av COVID-19-pandemin, och mycket snart \u00f6verf\u00f6rdes sjukdomen av resen\u00e4rer till andra l\u00e4nder. Ett nytt och nytt coronavirus identifierades ganska snabbt som orsaken, men man visste inte mycket om hur detta virus skulle p\u00e5verka befolkningen. Det \u00e4r uppenbart att det \u00f6verf\u00f6rs fr\u00e5n person till person, men vilka \u00e5tg\u00e4rder kan vidtas f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rhindra att det sprids?<\/p>\n
N\u00e4r de enskilda l\u00e4nderna ins\u00e5g att internationella resen\u00e4rer spred sjukdomen fr\u00e5n land till land, inf\u00f6rde de \u00e5tg\u00e4rder f\u00f6r att stoppa eller begr\u00e4nsa inresan till sina l\u00e4nder. \u00c5tg\u00e4rder som f\u00f6rbud mot inresa, krav p\u00e5 COVID-testning innan man g\u00e5r ombord p\u00e5 flygplanen eller inf\u00f6rande av obligatorisk karant\u00e4n f\u00f6r inresande resen\u00e4rer inf\u00f6rdes i n\u00e4stan alla l\u00e4nder.<\/p>\n
N\u00e4r ett test f\u00f6r viruset v\u00e4l fanns tillg\u00e4ngligt inledde l\u00e4nderna \u00e5tg\u00e4rder f\u00f6r att stoppa den interna \u00f6verf\u00f6ringen, t.ex. genom att kr\u00e4va socialt avst\u00e5ndstagande, st\u00e4nga offentliga inr\u00e4ttningar, kr\u00e4va att man b\u00e4r mask, isolera sig sj\u00e4lv om man \u00e4r sjuk och uppmana m\u00e4nniskor att testa sig.<\/p>\n
Inf\u00f6randet av effektiva vacciner och nya behandlingar som dramatiskt minskade komplikationer som sjukhusvistelse, intensivv\u00e5rd och d\u00f6dsfall f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade saker och ting. Pandemin blev mer hanterbar och behovet av dramatiska \u00e5tg\u00e4rder f\u00f6r att hindra resen\u00e4rer fr\u00e5n att komma in och f\u00f6r att stoppa lokal \u00f6verf\u00f6ring minskade.<\/p>\n
I mitten av 2022, n\u00e4r stora delar av befolkningen var vaccinerade, kunde n\u00e4stan alla tidiga kontroll\u00e5tg\u00e4rder upph\u00f6ra p\u00e5 grund av en viss toleransniv\u00e5 f\u00f6r l\u00e5ga niv\u00e5er av \u00f6verf\u00f6ring av viruset, sjukhusvistelser och d\u00f6dsfall.<\/p>\n
Hur gick det d\u00e5 f\u00f6r Kina i allt detta?<\/p>\n
Redan tidigt vidtogs \u00e5tg\u00e4rder f\u00f6r att n\u00e4stan eliminera internationella flygresor och inrikesresor med alla transportmedel. Folkh\u00e4lso\u00e5tg\u00e4rder som socialt avst\u00e5ndstagande, begr\u00e4nsningar av befolkningens r\u00f6rlighet, karant\u00e4n och omfattande COVID-tester genomf\u00f6rdes med en intensitet som inte har setts i andra l\u00e4nder. Det uttalade m\u00e5let var att stoppa all \u00f6verf\u00f6ring av viruset \u00f6verallt. Ofta till\u00e4mpades ett \"lockdown\"-koncept p\u00e5 hela samh\u00e4llen eller till och med st\u00e4der, s\u00e5 att alla r\u00f6relser och interaktioner stoppades. N\u00e4r testning blev tillg\u00e4nglig, utsattes hela st\u00e4der f\u00f6r COVID-testning och efterf\u00f6ljande karant\u00e4n.<\/p>\n
Om m\u00e4nniskor testade positivt fanns det en risk att de skulle f\u00e5 sitta i karant\u00e4n i flera veckor p\u00e5 ett sjukhusrum. Om du gick till en aff\u00e4r eller restaurang som hade bes\u00f6kts av en COVID-positiv person kunde du tvingas stanna l\u00e4nge p\u00e5 ett karant\u00e4ncenter med sparsamt boende. Eller s\u00e5 kan du bli inl\u00e5st i ditt eget hem utan tillst\u00e5nd att l\u00e4mna det, inte ens f\u00f6r att skaffa mat. Samma resultat kan intr\u00e4ffa om du bara passerar en smittad person p\u00e5 gatan.<\/p>\n
Om du hade varit inl\u00e5st i karant\u00e4n utsattes du ofta f\u00f6r diskriminering efter att du sl\u00e4ppts ut.<\/p>\n
Testning blev allest\u00e4des n\u00e4rvarande. I storst\u00e4der som Peking, Shanghai och Shenzhen, med tiotals miljoner inv\u00e5nare, var man tvungen att testa sig varannan eller var tredje dag i ett b\u00e5s p\u00e5 trottoaren. Uppfyllandet av kraven f\u00f6ljdes upp via h\u00e4lsokoder i mobiltelefonen.<\/p>\n
COVID-vacciner tillverkade i Kina inf\u00f6rdes och mer \u00e4n 3 miljarder doser administrerades. Studier visade dock att de vanligaste vaccinerna hade 51% effekt (CoronaVac) och 79% effekt (Sinopharm), vilket \u00e4r betydligt l\u00e4gre \u00e4n de vanligaste Moderna- och Pfizer-vaccinerna i m\u00e5nga andra l\u00e4nder.<\/p>\n
Tillbaka till den ursprungliga fr\u00e5gan: fungerade alla dessa h\u00e5rda \u00e5tg\u00e4rder?<\/p>\n
Svaret \u00e4r att det inte f\u00f6rekom n\u00e5gra betydande utbrott eller \"v\u00e5gor\" av infektioner under 2020 och 2021. Titta p\u00e5 denna tabell:<\/p>\n Totalt rapporterade Kina cirka 10,5 miljoner fall och 32 700 d\u00f6dsfall fram till den 5 januari 2023. Under samma period har USA registrerat 101 miljoner fall och 1,1 miljoner d\u00f6dsfall.<\/p>\n \u00c4ven om tillf\u00f6rlitligheten och noggrannheten hos de kinesiska uppgifterna ofta ifr\u00e5gas\u00e4tts \u00e4r skillnaderna mellan de tv\u00e5 l\u00e4nderna och resultaten av deras olika strategier avsev\u00e4rt olika.<\/p>\n Men \u00e4r Kinas nollstrategi h\u00e5llbar? Den gick just s\u00f6nder. F\u00f6r flera veckor sedan d\u00f6dade en brand i ett l\u00e5st hyreshus med karant\u00e4n 10 personer i staden Xinjiang. Den ackumulerade frustrationen bland befolkningen \u00f6ver de restriktiva kontroll\u00e5tg\u00e4rderna kokade \u00f6ver. I m\u00e5nga st\u00e4der h\u00f6lls offentliga demonstrationer d\u00e4r man ifr\u00e5gasatte behovet av fortsatta l\u00e5sningar och omfattande tester och karant\u00e4ner. Befolkningen kr\u00e4vde att regeringens nollstrategi f\u00f6r COVID skulle upph\u00f6ra. De ekonomiska kostnaderna f\u00f6r de str\u00e4nga restriktionerna (t.ex. st\u00e4ngda f\u00f6retag, arbetsl\u00f6shet osv.) har ocks\u00e5 blivit outh\u00e4rdliga.<\/p>\n I b\u00f6rjan av december 2021 \u00e4ndrade Kina sin nollstrategi f\u00f6r COVID med dramatiska konsekvenser. N\u00e4stan alla \u00e5tg\u00e4rder i nollstrategin upph\u00e4vdes n\u00e4stan \u00f6ver en natt. Som ett resultat av detta upplever Kina en aldrig tidigare sk\u00e5dad \u00f6kning av antalet fall. \u00c4ven om uppgifterna \u00e4r tveksamma finns det rapporter om en \u00f6kning med n\u00e4stan 50%, fr\u00e5n 15 161 nya sjukhusinl\u00e4ggningar p\u00e5 det kinesiska fastlandet under den vecka som slutade den 25 december till 22 416 under den vecka som slutade den 1 januari. Den officiella d\u00f6dssiffran \u00e4r underrapporterad, men krematorier rapporterar att de \u00f6versv\u00e4mmas av kroppar.<\/p>\n Varf\u00f6r h\u00e4nde detta? Vi kan spekulera i att en kombination av faktorer bidrog till COVID:s explosion. \u00c5 ena sidan ledde det pl\u00f6tsliga upph\u00e4vandet av mycket restriktiva \u00e5tg\u00e4rder till en omedelbar blandning av smittade och icke-smittade m\u00e4nniskor, t.ex. familje\u00e5terf\u00f6rening, resor till andra st\u00e4der, offentliga sammankomster osv. - allt detta \u00f6kade risken f\u00f6r \u00f6verf\u00f6ring av viruset. Dessutom var stora delar av befolkningen inte skyddade p\u00e5 grund av vacciner med l\u00e5g effektivitet.<\/p>\n Slutligen, vad inneb\u00e4r den nuvarande situationen i Kina f\u00f6r alla andra l\u00e4nder? \u00c5 ena sidan kommer en enorm v\u00e5g av nya COVID-19-fall att sprida eventuella nya virusvarianter n\u00e4r den kinesiska befolkningen reser internationellt. Dessutom ger ett stort antal virus\u00f6verf\u00f6ringar viruset m\u00f6jligheter att utveckla nya varianter. Men just nu f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker V\u00e4rldsh\u00e4lsoorganisationen och h\u00e4lso- och regeringstj\u00e4nstem\u00e4n \u00f6ver hela v\u00e4rlden bed\u00f6ma den eller de risker som Kinas COVID-19-problem medf\u00f6r.<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column] Under COVID-19-pandemin genomf\u00f6rde Kina ett omfattande experiment f\u00f6r att se om det var m\u00f6jligt att begr\u00e4nsa \u00f6verf\u00f6ringen av viruset inom landet och f\u00f6rhindra att det kom in i landet via resen\u00e4rer fr\u00e5n utlandet. Efterhand som h\u00e4ndelserna utvecklades blev metoden k\u00e4nd som \"noll COVID-strategin\". Fungerade det? Svaret \u00e4r [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":83478,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"\n During the COVID-19 pandemic, China conducted a massive experiment to see if it were possible to contain transmission of this virus within the country and keep it from getting into the country by travellers from abroad. As events unfolded, the approach became known as the \u201czero COVID strategy\u201d. Did it work? The answer is sort of but it had to be abandoned due to consequences that could not be predicted when the strategy was started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But first, let\u2019s look at the specific measures that made up the \u201czero COVID strategy\u201d. For that, we have to go way back to January 2020 when China realized that they had to report the occurrence of 40 unusual cases of severe pneumonia in the city of Wuhan. They were the first officially reported cases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and very shortly, the disease was carried by travellers to other countries. A new and novel coronavirus was identified rather rapidly as the cause, but little was known about how this virus would affect the population. Clearly, it was transmitted from person-to-person, but what measures could be taken to stop it from spreading?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Realizing that international travellers were spreading the disease from county to country, individual countries instituted measures to stop or limit people from entering their countries. Measures such as banning entry, or requiring COVID testing before boarding aeroplanes, or establishing mandatory quarantine for entering travellers were established in nearly all countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, once a test for the virus was available, countries initiated measures to stop internal transmission, e.g., mandating social distancing, closing public establishments, mandating mask-wearing, self-isolation if ill, and urging people to get tested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The introduction of effective vaccines and new treatments that dramatically reduced complications such as hospitalization, intensive care and death changed things. The pandemic became more manageable and the need for dramatic measures to restrict travellers from entering and for stopping local transmission was reduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By mid-2022, with large segments of the population immunized through vaccination, a certain level of tolerance for low levels of transmission of the virus, hospitalization and death allowed for the discontinuance of almost all the early control measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So how did China fare in all of this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Early on, steps were taken to nearly eliminate international air travel as well as domestic travel by any means of transportation. The public health measures such as social distancing, limitations on population movement, quarantine and extensive COVID testing were implemented with an intensity not seen in other countries. The stated goal was to stop all transmission of the virus everywhere. A \u201clockdown\u201d concept was often applied to entire communities or even cities, such that all movement and interactions were stopped. When testing became available, entire cities were submitted to COVID testing and subsequent quarantine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If people tested positive, there was a risk that they would be quarantined for weeks in a hospital room. If you went to a store or restaurant that had been visited by a COVID-positive person, you could be required to stay at a quarantine centre with sparse accommodations for a long time. Or you might be locked up in your own home without permission to leave, even to secure food. The same result could happen if you just passed an infected person on the street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you had been locked up in quarantine, you were often subjected to discrimination after your release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Testing became ubiquitous. In large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen with populations of tens of millions of people, people were required to be tested every two or three days at sidewalk booths. Compliance was tracked through health codes on your cell phone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chinese-produced COVID vaccines were introduced and more than 3 billion doses were administered. However, studies showed that the most commonly used vaccines were 51% effective (CoronaVac) and 79% effective (Sinopharm) which is considerably lower than the commonly used Moderna and Pfizer vaccines in many other countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Back to the original question: did all these harsh measures work?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The answer is that there were no significant outbreaks or \u201cwaves\u201d of infection throughout 2020 and 2021. Check out this table:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Overall, China reported approximately 10.5 million cases and 32,700 deaths through 5 January 2023. In the same time period, the USA recorded 101 million cases and 1.1 million deaths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although the reliability and accuracy of Chinese data are often questioned, differences between the two countries and the results of their different strategies are considerably different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But is China\u2019s zero strategy sustainable? It just broke. Several weeks ago, in the city of Xinjiang, a fire in a locked quarantined apartment building killed 10 people. Accumulated frustration in the population with the restrictive control measures boiled over. There were public demonstrations in many cities questioning the need for ongoing lockdowns and extensive testing and quarantine. The population demanded the end to the government\u2019s zero COVID strategy. The economic costs of severe restrictions (e.g., closed businesses, unemployment, etc.) also have become unbearable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In early December 2021, China reversed its zero COVID strategy with dramatic repercussions. Nearly all of the measures in the zero strategy were suspended almost overnight. As a result, China is experiencing an unprecedented surge in cases. Although the data are questionable, there are reports of almost a 50% increase, from 15,161 new hospitalizations for mainland China during the week ending December 25 to 22,416 for the week ending January 1. The official death count is underreported but crematoria report that they are inundated with bodies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why did this happen? We can speculate that a combination of factors contributed to this explosion of COVID. On one hand, the sudden lifting of very restrictive measures led to an immediate mixing of infected and uninfected people, e.g., the reunification of families, travel to other cities, public gatherings, etc. \u2013 all of which increased the risk of transmission of the virus. In addition, large portions of the population were not protected due to vaccines with low levels of effectiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Finally, what does the current China situation mean for all the other countries? On one hand, a huge wave of new COVID-19 cases will spread any new virus variants as the Chinese population travels internationally. In addition, large numbers of virus transmission provide the virus with opportunities to develop new variants. But right now, the World Health Organization and health and government officials worldwide are trying to assess the risk(s) created by China\u2019s COVID-19 problem.<\/p>\n","_et_gb_content_width":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155,156,20],"tags":[108,109,145,112,113,22,229],"yoast_head":"\n\n\n
\n Land<\/td>\n Antal fall per 100 000 personer<\/td>\n Antal d\u00f6dsfall per 100 000 personer<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Kina<\/td>\n 75<\/td>\n 2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n USA<\/td>\n 30,400<\/td>\n 331<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t[\/et_pb_row]
\n\t\t[\/et_pb_section]<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Country<\/td> Number of Cases per100,000 People<\/td> Number of Deaths peer100,000 people<\/td><\/tr> China<\/td> 75<\/td> 2<\/td><\/tr> USA<\/td> 30,400<\/td> 331<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n