Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of any other individual, organization, or entity.

There is no denying that the fact that Moscow’s ongoing assault on Kyiv is jeopardizing not only Eastern Europe but also the entirety of the Eurasian continent. Being dubbed as ‘the bloodiest conflict’ in Europe since World War II, the unprovoked invasion into Ukraine has managed to single-handedly impact geopolitical dynamics, economies, and social structures on a global scale. 

With the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stating that he believes the conflict is ‘closer to the end’ at the UN General Assembly, it is likely that many of Ukraine’s newly formed allies may extend their support in the coming months. 

Situation Update

As of 24 September, Moscow has launched a series of attacks on multiple Ukrainian cities. The most recent attacks in Zaporizhzhia and Arkhangelskoe resulted in 23 severely injured citizens and 3 fatalities, respectively. The rise in drone and short-range ballistic missile attacks from Russia, courtesy Iran, have further advanced the Russian aggression to another level. Russian forces have also begun targeting the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, a ‘stronghold’ that stood its ground since the beginning of the invasion. 

On 06 August, Ukraine commenced its cross-border attack in the Kursk region. In this surprise incursion into Russian territory, at least 56 civilians were killed and a total of 266 sustained serious injuries in the last seven weeks. As per the Russian Foreign Ministry, over 131,000 civilians have left the high-risk areas of the region but Ukrainian forces are accused of holding some civilians against their will. However, Kyiv has refuted all and any such claims citing Moscow’s ‘long history of false numbers and propaganda’. 

In an illicit turn of events,  Mariane Katzarova, the UN special rapporteur on the rights situation in Russia, revealed that the human rights situation in Russia continues to deteriorate in the past year. All this comes amid the tightening of a ‘state-sponsored system of fear and punishment’. Prison conditions have become much worse due to a steady rise in the number of arbitrary arrests. Moscow currently houses more than 1,300 political prisoners, as per Katzarova. 

Shocking evidence shows that approximately 170,000 convicted violent criminals were recruited to fight in Ukraine. These Russian criminals were either pardoned or had their sentences reduced, from committing grave offences such as rape and murder, just so they could participate in the war. Russian prisons were also found to purposely refuse medical care for Ukrainian prisoners. According to reports by a UNHR Council commission, doctors in one prison also took part in what the reports defined as  ‘torture’ which has become a ‘common and acceptable practice’. 

The Victory Plan

On 22 September, Zelenskyy travelled to the United States with an intent and an ‘urgent attempt’ to influence White House policy on the ongoing war, regardless of who secures victory in the US elections slated for early November. Dubbed as the ‘victory plan’, the Ukrainian President is planning to present its details to President Joe Biden as well as his two potential successors, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Zelenskyy believes that if supported by the West, the plan is expected to have a ‘broad impact’ on Moscow which could signal an end to the war diplomatically. 

“The Victory Plan envisages quick and concrete steps by our strategic partners – from now until the end of December,” said Zelenskyy while addressing the media on 20 September. The Ukrainian President is of the view that any other manipulations ‘would simply postpone’ the inevitable, which in this case is further escalation of violence that may spill over to other neighboring nations this time. 

Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington comes at a rather precarious time for Ukraine, as Trump’s victory in the Presidential elections could induce a change of Washington’s policy on Ukraine (which depends largely on US military and financial support). While Zelenskyy is still hoping for NATO membership before Biden leaves the White House and Russia to withdraw its troops from all Ukrainian territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that peace talks can only commence once Kyiv surrenders eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and forgoes the NATO membership plan. 

The Peace Summit

The Ukrainian President is certain that the plans would act as a ‘bridge’ to the second Ukraine-led peace summit proposed in November. The summit’s idea was suggested to a handful of Global South countries in August. However, on 21 September, Russia stated that it will be absent from the summit.  

“The summit will have the same aim: to promote the unviable ‘Zelenskyy formula’ as the only basis for resolving the conflict, get support for it from the world majority and on its behalf to present Russia with an ultimatum on capitulation,” Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova elaborated. 

Nonetheless, Zelenskyy is positive that the summit initiative is a well thought out peace format which could ‘de-escalate the situation. 

Future Outlook

Analysts and military experts are of the opinion that Kyiv might call for long-term assurances of aid into 2025 as well as push towards somewhat of a declaration of post-Biden continuity in support. 

“This will be a very important moment. Perhaps in some ways, in a political and military-political sense, it will be a pivotal moment,” says Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst. 

With Ukraine wanting to hit military installations up to 186 miles (300 km) within Russia, it is highly possible that Zelenskyy will reiterate requirements to authorise the long-range strikes. This action Moscow has said will make NATO members direct participants in the conflict and evoke a response. Considering that Russia has been on the offensive since October 2023, Ukraine’s latest claim on Kursk could very well serve as a key negotiating tool at the talks. 

In the case of Russia, it is plausible that Moscow will now move ahead to capture the transport hub of Pokrovsk by the year-end. This calculated move will not only unleash chaos within the Ukrainian logistics but also make way for ‘new lines’ of attack for Moscow. 

Por favor, siga e como nós: